Using Your Own Expertise and Beating Bookmakers
/ January 22, 2020 /
Think how you could run a bookmaker / sportsbook. Besides the other people involved, there is a squad of odds compilers with the primary purpose of designing the chances and the lines for all the games. The bookmaker will want to focus its resources on markets in which they get the most revenue (and the most money) so that the majority of employees work on those markets. Many smaller markets then take into account. We may have an individual covering a sport, or even an individual covering more than a sport, depending on the size of the bookmaker. As they are smaller markets, the company won’t make much cash on this market either, nor will it take a risk, so that it can spend less time ensuring that these lines are right.
As a player, you can therefore take advantage of this situation simply by practicing in a particular sport and thus beating your bookies.
Let’s assume you think you are an expert in lower league Ice hockey like MHL. You go frequently to games so you know exactly how many teams play, you are aware of the injury situation of several clubs, so you regularly visit the forum to read it. How’s a bookmaker going to look at these markets? Should people play, and will they feel the same way as you do? I expect very much–they’ll presumably use the league table mix and the individual form to set up their chances. Who’s got the edge? Clearly, you do. A big edge, the sportsbook isn’t the specialist here.
Please take a slightly different view. You know the NHL well, and as the MHL specialist, you know it all. The situation is completely different because your know-how will be balanced by the sports books, so you will spend a lot of time and effort ensuring that the bets are correct on these markets. It’ll be a little one if you’ve got an edge here.
It’s not gambling if you always win! It is the easiest way to make money on sports. Learn all about Sports Arbitrage.
Beat the bookies by making your own odds
Yeah, it’s cool to be a sport professional, but how do you profit from it? The best way to do that is to equate your own odds with the odds of your bookmakers. Here’s an example: there’s a game in the MHL. Moscow plays Riga at home. Upon contemplating all the aspects of the game for some time, you have decided that every result has the following chances:
- Moscow win 50%
- Draw 30%
- Riga win 20%
We will turn these outcomes into odds after we have measured the probabilities. We just divide 100 by every probability.
- Moscow win 100% / 50% = 2.00
- Draw 100% / 30% = 3.33
- Riga win 100% / 20% = 5.00
Then we will equate the chances we have with the Bookmaker’s odds.
- Moscow win 2.00 Bookmakers odds are 1.83
- Draw 3.33 Bookmakers odds are 3.60
- Riga win 5.00 Bookmakers odds are 3.75
There, as you can see, both Moscow and Riga are given shorter chances than you have figured out. You want to get Moscow back at 2.00 or higher, and Riga at 5.00 or higher, but the bookmaker gives you less in all cases and you leave those numbers alone. When it comes to draw, though, you believe the equal chances are 3.33, but the company offers you 3.6–here you gain value, so the draw should be your gamble on this market Note, here you are the specialist, so help your own decision and play your own game with the bookies.
The system will work for any event, basically calculate a percent chance for each event (there can be either two events, as in a game of tennis or over 100 at a golf tournament, the figures are the same) and turn the percentages into chances, and equate them to the real odds.
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