THE CRITICAL SIGNIFICANCE OF VALUE IN SPORTS BETTING
/ January 3, 2020 /
Winning a sports bet 5 times in a row is lucky but does that automatically show that a bettor is successful and has a great betting strategy? You will be surprised but the answer is no. Sports betting is NOT about winner selection, sports betting is about the value of betting. Some of you probably believe we’re nuts after these first few parts and ready to shut the window.
Learning the value concept of sports betting is crucial to how you can make money when you bet on sports. Sports Bet value is unnecessarily diluted if you have a bet that pays out winners at a cost that is higher than it ought to be.
Before we get into nitty-gritty, this is a simple analogy. Let’s presume you want jobs, and find that it’s worth 20 $ per hour for your talents. You will find a job that pays $100 which takes approximately five hours. Is there any value? Not really, in the way that we’re debating at least. You pay quite what you find to be deserving of the work. Except what you want to be paid, there is no added value.
But what if you find a job that only takes four hours but still costs $100? You’re paid much more than you think you should. That’s an added value When betting on sports, you seek bets that will pay better than you believe.
We need to break a concept known as implicit probability before we go any further. While it can be a little math-intensive, it is a key element in understanding and finding value.
The Benefit of betting on Value
When a sportsbook makes a betting money line, it shows you the percentage you are paying for. What they tell you is also the likelihood that this amount is equal to. This likelihood figure is called the implied probability Basically, it’s what you say you should win the bet on the sportsbook.
For convenience, we should find a sportsbook that gives no juice bets (house rake).Let’s look at a case in point. Let’s say you bet on a game, and the team’s+ 300. This equates to 25 percent, if you translate this into an inferred chance. Which means the sportsbook predicts that you’ll win a wager 25% of the time, or 1 out of 4. This is the fair rate for the bet, according to the sportsbook. You ought to break even on this bet, if the sportsbook is right.
Consider this game investing $100. You’ll get $300 in benefit if you win your bet. Suppose also that a sportsbook is right, so you win this bet once in four (25 percent) years. Let’s dig at the looks of your profit and loss.
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Your overall gain is $0. You’re splitting equally, as planned. But what if a sportsbook is mistaken and you get another amount of the time you bet? Let’s claim that you really hope that the team will win the game much more, and will win by 50%. Let’s say you’re right. Here’s how your profit and loss looks.
Your profit is 400 dollars now! The sportsbook compensated you as if the team had only a 25% victory, but you thought that the chance to win is much higher, at 50%. Note, if something is less likely to happen, sportsbooks give you extra money. This means they think the bet has only a 25% chance, so they will offer a far better payout. If the book thought the team could win by 50%, they would only pay you for even money, and not give you the lower premium as they are.
If you see these much better payouts, but consider that the bet doesn’t really guarantee better payouts, you have an interest. Your prediction of what you think will happen is your real probability, and your implicit probability is the percentage of the sportsbook (found from the money-line).
You also reached the value when the true likelihood is HIGHER than that suggested. The higher the possible risk, the higher the value the more optimistic the location of the wager should be. Clearly, you can’t know the real probability beforehand unless you can see the future, but you can guess what you believe will be the real probability.
You’ll be a long-term winner if you always make bets of a premium. Sometimes it even involves betting on players you believe would fail. You can find plenty of apps such as Rebelbetting app and Valuebetting app that does the search for these kind of bets for you and provides you with odds from all the bookies around the internet, so you can make your bet and earn that nice profit.
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